Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
