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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.