A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
